The energy sector, as currently composed, is heading for collapse within a decade.

bantam inc jack duval mfo multi-family office NYC manhattan - pterodactyl fossil image

Ironically, fossil fuel companies will become sources of funds for the new energy future.

In the first post of this series, I introduced the idea of the Climate War.  Here I want to use the oil industry to illustrate how a whole industry will be left behind as the world shifts into the third industrial revolution.  (The first industrial revolution was powered by coal, the second by oil, and the third will be powered by renewables.[1]) Clearly the oil industry will be with us for a few more decades, but all the growth will be stripped out of it.  This can be seen in the car market over the past few years.  Internal combustion engine (“ICE”) car sales have been flat to down and electric vehicle (“EV”) sales are growing exponentially.  We will have ICE cars for many more years, but no one will want work or invest in, the ICE industry.  Why invest in an industry with no growth when you can invest in its cousin, where sales are growing 50 to 100

percent per year? Chart 1: Global EV Monthly Sales[2] The exponential growth of EV car sales can be seen in Chart 1, above.  In January 2017 there were under 50,000 EVs sold globally, in January 2019 that number had more than tripled.  This growth has taken place while there have been very few EVs for consumers to choose from.  That is about to change.  There are an estimated 120 new EV models being released in the next five years.[3] Table 1:  Global Car Sales[4] Table 1, above, shows (in the bottom row) that combined global car sales were down from 2016 through 2019.  However, those numbers include EV sales, which have grown exponentially.  If EV sales were backed out to show ICE car sales only, the numbers would be even worse. Which brings me back to the oil industry. Dead Man Walking The energy sector, as currently composed, is heading for collapse within a decade.  It’s already happening. Chart 2: …

The real play is in companies that are leveraged to the creation of infrastructure assets.

bantam inc jack duval MFO multi-family office new york manhattan - green infrastructure image

Infrastructure will look a lot different in the future.

I've been writing about the coming secular increase in global infrastructure spending in a series of blog posts.  Others are seeing the same thing, both in the M&A market and private equity universe. Infrastructure M&A In December, John Grayken's Lone Star Funds bought BASF's construction chemicals business for $3.5 billion.[1]  That unit

has over 7,000 employees and production sites and sales offices in over 60 countries. On Monday, WSP Global approached infrastructure engineering firm Aecom about a possible merger.[2]  For those of you who don't know Aecom, it is a global engineering firm that offers services in infrastructure, including: consulting,…

Global central bank intervention has altered the very fabric of the economic universe, time.

bantam inc. jack duval mfo multi-family office manhattan new york - space bending image

Light bending around the sun is similar to the distortion caused by artificially low interest rates.

Like the Spacing Guild, central bankers the world over have bent the financial universe to their will.  The results have been spectacular.  If you were wealthy in 2009, you are almost certainly much more so at the end of 2019. In this unprecedented decent into interest rate suppression, asset purchases, and

the resulting stock market volatility suppression, there has been an unintended consequence, it has caused the periodicity of the economic cycle to become stretched.  In other words, global central bank intervention has altered the very fabric of the economic universe, time. And we are nowhere near touching the bottom…

Western governments are about to steal the central planning playbook from China. The plan is infrastructure spending.

bantam inc jack duval multi-family office manhattan new york - chinese military parade

Global politicians marching in formation.

Much ink has been spilled bemoaning how Europe and the U.S. will become "Japanified", but pundits have missed the geographic mark.  The U.S. will become China, with Japanese characteristics. Global leaders must marvel at the high growth rates that China has been able to sustain for the past 20 years.  And although

this growth is slowing, it is still two to six times that of other similar sized economies. The economics profession has been mostly silent on this phenomenon as it puts the lie to every theory the mainstream discipline stands upon.  In short, a centrally-planned economy that crushes all…