The changing future is very much investable, and significant returns will be available for those who position themselves for it.

bantam inc jack duval multi-family office new york manhattan MFO - brave new investment world - 200 BC Europe

Tri-polar Europe circa 200 BC.

The Brave New Investing World paradigm is underpinned and propelled by the existence of a fading hegemon, the United States.  This does not mean the U.S. will collapse any time soon, indeed, the U.S. could continue to flourish for quite some time.  For instance, the U.K. did not sink into the sea after

the sun finally did set on the British empire, though it is a shadow of its former self. The transition from a world with a hegemon creating the conditions for globalization and integration to one of polyarchy, regionalization, and disintegration, will not be smooth.  In many ways,…

Investors face a risk that has gone virtually unnoticed, unmentioned, unmeasured, and which from time to time destroys their capital.

Complexity Risk walks the investment world freely.

Five years ago I published a white paper entitled "Complexity Risk: A New Risk Category". In it, I defined "complexity risk" as the potential for an investment to generate returns that are different than those anticipated. Investments like short term U.S. Treasury bills are the least complex. Indeed, they're so simple

they don't even have a prospectus. You buy them and in three months you get your money back, plus interest at the stated rate. However, other investments appear to be just as simple but are wildly complex under the surface. Like Double Jeopardy, the investment "scores" can really change…

Everyone is focused on the stock market, but the bond market will call the ball.

bantam inc jack duval multi-family office MFO UHNW manhattan new york city - 30 year yield chart

The downward step function in 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond yields.

In this video, Bantam CEO Jack Duval revisits his January 31, 2019 blog post about the Jerome Powell pivot, and takes a quick tour of the stock and bond markets.

https://youtu.be/DipEp_uWJN4 Topics discussed include: The S&P 500;2-year U.S. Treasury Note;MOVE Index;Deutsche Bank, and;The downward step function in 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond yields

Investors should use any rallies to reduce equity positions.

Federal Reserve rate cuts

What is thy bidding, my master?

The S&P 500 rallied 2.1 percent yesterday on the back of Jerome Powell's comments that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates if the trade war continued to affect the economy. Investors are foolish to buy on such news. Historically, when the Fed cuts rates, you want to be well

out of the stock market. Indeed, falling Fed Funds rates and a steepening yield curve have almost always coincided with U.S. economic recessions. Chart 1: Federal Funds Rates v. Economic Recessions Chart 2: Yield Curve Steepness v. Economic Recessions Currently, the yield curve is steepening and the Fed is likely…

The truth goes through three phases: First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as self-evident.

bantam inc jack duval multi-family office new york manhattan - participant ponzi - jim cramer image

This guy will not save you.

In my first two blog posts in this series, I introduced the idea of the Participant Ponzi and then explained how the U.S. stock markets have been in a Participant Ponzi. In this post, I explain how the U.S. equity Participant Ponzi could end. The End of the Participant Ponzi Funding is

the key to the Participant Ponzi, as it is for all Ponzi schemes.  Like a traditional Ponzi, the Participant Ponzi fails when the sources of funding have become exhausted.  New buyers are not available to take out earlier buyers who want to sell. I believe we have entered…