The world has to go through a deleveraging process where assets are sold to pay down debts. It has only begun.


Hieronymus Bosch rendering of deleveraging cycle.

This is the third blog post in my series on the coronavirus and the related market impacts. I've been asked by clients and friends what to make of last week’s rally in the stock markets. What I make of it is simple:  it should be sold. If you failed to get out

of risk assets during the selloff that started on February 24th, you have a great opportunity to sell now. This rally is a fugazi, straight out of the bear market playbook and it should be sold now, with no delay. Don't believe me?  Riddle me this: can you…

Many common ideas, once held sacrosanct, are headed for the long home.

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"Man Goeth to his Long Home" 1911 Sir Stanley Spencer. Spencer sought to encourage his audience to contemplate life.

This is the second post in a series on the Coronavirus and it’s investment implications. First, some perspective. We are, I believe, still in the early innings of this game.  To quote epidemiologist Michael Osterholm, this is not a blizzard, this is winter.[1] Chart 1: Long-Term SPX Log Chart As Chart

1, above, shows, we are only down about 23 percent (on a monthly basis) from the recent highs.  This comes after the longest economic expansion in U.S. history and a 340 percent rise in the S&P 500 price index (“SPX”).  The past 11-year market return greatly exceeds the 240…

In 1918 much of the world was as rural as it was during the Renaissance. Today, roughly 54 percent of global population lives in an urban area.

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Pangolin: Chinese delicacy known for its subtle taste and ability to destroy the global economy.

A species jump occurs when a pathogen gets transferred from one species to another. The coronavirus likely made such a jump from pangolins or some other wild animal that the Chinese eat or let freely roam in their food markets. The coronavirus is now making its second species jump, this time

from humans to the credit markets. Human-to-Credit While the daily point swings in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index make headlines, the real damage will be done in the credit markets. Patient zero in credit is the shale oil and gas producers. The Russian and Saudi…

Many ESG funds and ETFs are merely closet index funds, gussied up in ESG raiment.

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You don't need a Weatherman to know which way the climate blows.

In the first two posts of my Climate War series, I introduced the idea of a massive global mobilization to address climate change (thus the war analogy) and used the oil industry as an example of how large swaths of the current economy will be left behind. In this

post, I will examine another inconvenient truth, ESG investing has been ineffective. $30+ Trillion in ESG? According to the Global Sustainable Investment Review (“GSIR”) 2018 Review, ESG assets stood at $30.7 trillion at the start of 2018.[1]  If true, that would put ESG assets around 38 percent of all investment assets. …

The energy sector, as currently composed, is heading for collapse within a decade.

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Ironically, fossil fuel companies will become sources of funds for the new energy future.

In the first post of this series, I introduced the idea of the Climate War.  Here I want to use the oil industry to illustrate how a whole industry will be left behind as the world shifts into the third industrial revolution.  (The first industrial revolution was powered by coal, the second

by oil, and the third will be powered by renewables.[1]) Clearly the oil industry will be with us for a few more decades, but all the growth will be stripped out of it.  This can be seen in the car market over the past few years.  Internal combustion…