In the near future, everyone will have a personal account at the Federal Reserve.

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It's all about the ones and zeros.

This is the second post in my cryptocurrency blog series.  The first post can be found here. As I've discussed in other posts, the use of physical cash has been declining since peaking in 2008.  The coronavirus may put a stake through the heart of it.  Generally speaking, if you use a credit

card for payment, no one touches it but you, that’s a serious competitive advantage in the age of coronavirus. Cryptocurrencies are even less physical than credit cards.  Indeed, they aren’t physical at all. Well before the spread of coronavirus, the shift away from physical cash was going…

The death of the 60/40 allocation has lead many investors to have an effectively equity-only portfolio.

bantam inc jack duval private investment office new york manhattan - cryptocurrency icons

Will Bitcoin replace the U.S. dollar?

This is the first post in a series on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.  In these posts, I make general comments on about owning cryptocurrencies.  These comments are NOT individual investment recommendations.  You should consult with your investment advisor about owning cryptocurrencies or any other investment. Owning and Sizing Cryptocurrency Investments Every investor should have

some exposure to cryptocurrencies.  The only question is how much.  For most investors, the answer is very little, and it should be confined to a percentage of their risk assets.  That is, if an investor decides to allocate funds to cryptocurrencies, it should be a percentage their…

Debt used to serve the economy, now the economy services the debt.

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Jerome Powell, a former private equity executive, has no problem leveraging the U.S. economy.

This is the first post in a series on debt. Many market observers have watched the Federal Reserve’s (“Fed”) actions, and the subsequent market reactions, and have concluded that the Fed have undertaken to support the stock market.  This is an understandable conclusion, because the link appears to be impeccably causal:  when

the stock market declines, the Fed intervene and the market recovers.  While the timing of these events is true, I believe the causal link is misplaced. I believe the Fed are only concerned with government debt and making sure it is well maintained and, unbeknownst to them, that…

The rally in risk assets remains a rental.

george floyd looting

Post lock-down pent up "demand". Photo by Michael Buckner/Variety/Shutterstock.

Since the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak, I've published six blog posts with charts to illustrate the likely economic and financial consequences of the pandemic. Now that we're three months into this shock, thought it would be good to update some of those to see if things had

played out as anticipated. Chart 1: NIPA v. S&P 500 Index Source: Bloomberg In my March 31, 2020 post, I reviewed how the level of pre-tax corporate profits had not grown at all since the end of 2011. I observed that if this level was to decline by 10 percent and the…

Any loss of conviviality is a loss to the unwritten laws that allow humans to live and flourish together.

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Depiction of Plato's allegory of the cave.

For 5,000 years of human history, humanity has been working on coming together.  Let us call this the process of becoming convivial. This process, which, admittedly, has ebbed and flowed, has taken us from clawing out existence as individuals and small groups on the savanna, to tribes and nations.  It reached

an apotheosis in the modern world of complex supply chains and easy international travel. The entire world had become connected and convivial. That, of course, has come to a full stop. The Convivial Economy “Convivial” has its origins in two Latin words meaning to feast and to live.[1]  If…