Investors are shifting their gaze downward from top-line revenue to the apex predator of VC dreams: free cash flow.

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On the hunt for unicorns.

In the past two days investors have gotten three data points that should cause serious concern: The WeWork IPO getting revalued to $15-$20 billion (or cancelled), when their last raise was done at a $48 billion valuation;Ford being downgraded to junk status, and;Consumer Credit growth unexpectedly doubling. WeWork The bizzaro

world of private unicorns (privately held firms with $1 billion and higher valuations) has now officially begun to crash. Of course, we've seen this movie before, it was called the tech wreck. Back then the companies were public, and your grandmother owned them. In the sequel, only the "smart" money…

Investing is a kind of combat, mostly of the investor against herself.

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Bruce Lee fights (then) Lew Alcindor in the posthumous "Game of Death".

Every time the U.S. market goes into a serious downturn, a roundelay echoes across the financial world as bull market sycophants cry out: “No one could have seen this coming”. Of course, this is a lie.  Anyone willing to look honestly at the markets can see when risks are rising, valuations are

high, markets are weakening, and other indicators raise red flags. In this post, I am timestamping a number of existing negative indicators, near-term risks, and long-term, structural headwinds. Please don't misunderstand me.  I'm not a permabear, I'm a permarealist.  Any biases an investor has are just rocks they…

(Trade) war, ain't nothing but a heartbreak. - Edwin Starr

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Edwin Starr knew everything you need to know about war.

On Friday I wrote about how China could devalue the Renminbi in response to President Trump's September 1 tariff threat. While few commentators were expecting this, I pointed out that it would be seen as a move of strength for fighting back against Trump, instead of a move of

weakness. It would appear that Xi is in the move-of-strength camp because China devalued the Renminbi by about 1.5 percent against the dollar Sunday night. Chart 1: Dollar/RMB Cross Source: Bloomberg Trade War Goes Hot The trade war is now officially on and hot. The two biggest kids on the block…

Trump has entered the scorched earth phase of his presidency.

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Baron Harkonnen, no stranger to gangster moves.

After this week's events I have published a new video explaining what's going on and the market implications from here. Topics covered: The setup:Fed rate cut and accompanying comments;Trump's gangster move;Investment implications:The dollar;China;Copper;Oil;Gold;Bonds, and;Cannabis stocks. As always,

none of my comments should be considered an investment recommendation or investment advice. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJo1g9g44nQ&feature=youtu.be

The changing future is very much investable, and significant returns will be available for those who position themselves for it.

bantam inc jack duval multi-family office new york manhattan MFO - brave new investment world - 200 BC Europe

Tri-polar Europe circa 200 BC.

The Brave New Investing World paradigm is underpinned and propelled by the existence of a fading hegemon, the United States.  This does not mean the U.S. will collapse any time soon, indeed, the U.S. could continue to flourish for quite some time.  For instance, the U.K. did not sink into the sea after

the sun finally did set on the British empire, though it is a shadow of its former self. The transition from a world with a hegemon creating the conditions for globalization and integration to one of polyarchy, regionalization, and disintegration, will not be smooth.  In many ways,…