Western governments are about to steal the central planning playbook from China. The plan is infrastructure spending.

bantam inc jack duval multi-family office manhattan new york - chinese military parade

Global politicians marching in formation.

Much ink has been spilled bemoaning how Europe and the U.S. will become "Japanified", but pundits have missed the geographic mark.  The U.S. will become China, with Japanese characteristics. Global leaders must marvel at the high growth rates that China has been able to sustain for the past 20 years.  And although

this growth is slowing, it is still two to six times that of other similar sized economies. The economics profession has been mostly silent on this phenomenon as it puts the lie to every theory the mainstream discipline stands upon.  In short, a centrally-planned economy that crushes all…

The Chinese Communist Party starved 30 to 55 million of its own people in the "Great Leap Forward", and didn’t even bat an eye.

bantam inc jack duval multi-family office new york manhattan - Xi Jinping and Donald Trump eating

Eating America's lunch for 30 years.

While the Russians undoubtedly helped put Donald Trump into power, he could very easily be taken out of power by the Chinese. And it won't involve bot farms trolling on Twitter. This is not a tinfoil hat theory involving the tri-lateral commission, the Illuminati, QAnon, or the deep state.  It only

involves rational self-interest by state actors doing things they have already done before. Let us assume China views Trump as a threat.  A fair assumption since he has put more tariffs on them than any president before and has made their business model of forced technology transfer, IP theft,…

Negative yielding sovereign bonds are a form of capital confiscation and can be thought of as a stealth nationalization of the banks.

bantam inc jack duval multi-family office manhattan new york - Yield and Rates Table 2

Negative rates and negative yield curves made clear.

“The percentage you’re paying is too high priced. While you’re living beyond all your means/And the man in the suit has just bought a new car. From the profit he's made on your dreams." from “The Low Spark of High Heeled Boys”, by Traffic The world is now suffocating under a blanket of

negative yielding sovereign debt.  This phenomenon is perplexing to economists and laymen alike.  In this post, I’ll try to clarify how negative interest rates work and their implications. Chart 1:  Global Sovereign Debt Yields[1] How Negative Interest Rates Work Negative interest rates can be thought of as…

Investors are shifting their gaze downward from top-line revenue to the apex predator of VC dreams: free cash flow.

bantam inc jack duval multi-family office manhattan nyc - alien image

On the hunt for unicorns.

In the past two days investors have gotten three data points that should cause serious concern: The WeWork IPO getting revalued to $15-$20 billion (or cancelled), when their last raise was done at a $48 billion valuation;Ford being downgraded to junk status, and;Consumer Credit growth unexpectedly doubling. WeWork The bizzaro

world of private unicorns (privately held firms with $1 billion and higher valuations) has now officially begun to crash. Of course, we've seen this movie before, it was called the tech wreck. Back then the companies were public, and your grandmother owned them. In the sequel, only the "smart" money…

Investing is a kind of combat, mostly of the investor against herself.

bantam inc jack duval multi family office MFO UHNW manhattan new york - bruce lee v. lew alcindor image

Bruce Lee fights (then) Lew Alcindor in the posthumous "Game of Death".

Every time the U.S. market goes into a serious downturn, a roundelay echoes across the financial world as bull market sycophants cry out: “No one could have seen this coming”. Of course, this is a lie.  Anyone willing to look honestly at the markets can see when risks are rising, valuations are

high, markets are weakening, and other indicators raise red flags. In this post, I am timestamping a number of existing negative indicators, near-term risks, and long-term, structural headwinds. Please don't misunderstand me.  I'm not a permabear, I'm a permarealist.  Any biases an investor has are just rocks they…